2012 49er Draft Analysis

As I watched the 49ers select players in the 2012 draft - I was reminded of the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.  Newman and Redford were running from a posse - who could track them across stone, water, it appeared nothing could throw the posse off their trail.  "Who are these guys?"  one asked in desperation.  The same can be said for my reaction.  I'll admit listing Jenkins as a potential 4th WR option, but in truth had three others ahead of him, and that was before the Moss signing.  Brian Quick went to division rival STL - at the top of round 2.  Apparently Jeff Fischer or one of his staff saw what I saw.  Time will tell.  What I am confident about is Harbaugh & crew's ability to find talent.  I thought the same thing last year - Aldon WHO?

Aldon Smith's stats: 14 sacks, 2 forced fumbles - only playing 3rd down... and a rookie Pro Bowl mention is note worthy for any player.  I trust the brain trust in SF.  They want players who fit their system and to whom character matters.  C&T - Character and Team does to the Harbaughs.  Moss, Jacobs, Cox, Manningham, and Johnson need to remain squeaky clean, and place their interests behind the team.  Euphemistically speaking, recalling another classic film - The Untouchables - a large bat awaits players who refuse to control themselves.

Cons are not welcome.  Cons think of themselves first and always.  You cannot be competitive with Cons on your team.

The 49ers took players they evaulated as needed using their own criterion.  Time will tell how well they chose.

The draft is a modern version of slave trading.  Well, it is....  human beings are presented and selected based upon measurables and past actions.  There is no way any coach or draft team can predict how well a player will respond after they are drafted.  The large number of draft BUSTs is indicative of how dicey the process of human evaluation is.  Consider the large number of first round picks who never developed.  These are players who underwent UBER scrutiny.  In the days before the salary cap, the first 10 picks were bore hogged.  Nuttin was missed.  The most important element of a player's abilities  - Want To - is nearly impossible to gauge.  Players will lie when a multi-million dollar payday awaits them.  Some are sick of the game and once paid stop trying.  Some other players are um-day... stupid.

The Wonderlich test is an very important predictor of a players ability to succeed in the complexities of the NFL.  Any player who scores low must be removed from a draft list - IMO.  The combination of tired of playing and stupid is fatal.  Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Adam Pac-Man Jones, and this year - Morris Claiborne - are all first round picks who scored very low, some under 10, out of a possible 50 on the Wunderlich.  Morris scored a four !

I predict right here - Claiborne will never play at a level worth Dallas' trading up to get him.  He will struggle - then fail.  Or, his stupidity will lead to bad decision taking.  3-4 years tops before he is gone - or forgotten - irrelevant.  Admittedly, defense is more reaction and less thinking - but it is the other behaviors that accompany stupidity that dooms a player with limited intellectual abilities.  The slums are filled with people with low IQs.  It is not missing opportunities that places them in slums.  It is their stupidity and chosen behaviors that relegate them to the lowest rungs of success.

We will see what becomes of the draft selections and ubiquitous predictions of those players.  The entire draft hype is kinda silly - but fun.  There is another solution to FWS - football withdrawl syndrome.  Imagine....

The season is extended to 18 games.  Too many you say - wait.  Hear me out.

Instead of NFC and AFC playing each week - only one conference plays per week.  They alternate throughout the season.  This provides two weeks rest between games.  It prompts fans to pick another team to root for - a team not in their favorite team's conference.  This sells more merchandise and expands interest.  Best of all - the season expands to 40 weeks.  The season runs September through May !!!  Six weeks R&R, then training camp begins.  Players get more rest and play better.  Injuries are mitigated with more rest.  Everyone benefits.  The level of play gets better with healthy and rested players.  Win - Win - Win.

2012 NFL Draft - 40-Effing-ers Version

The Niner's draft will likely focus upon offense.  Last year's team defense was more than adequate and largely the reason for the team's successes.  Having quality second team players is also a need for every team.  Having young, talented players who learn from veterans is the Bill Walsh way.  Terminating and trading players - before they become a liability - performance or salary is unfortunate.  However, that reality is what the players chose when they adopted the Salary Cap.

The salary cap prevents teams from retaining popular, quality players.  The league might consider adding a team rule - if a player remains on the team thru his original contract + 2 years (6 years - typically) their salary counts 50% against the cap.)  This will permit teams and fans to maintain a roster that appeals to fans.  The salary cap results in fans rooting for jerseys and not players.

The Draft - offensive weapons are needed for Alex Smith to thrive and develop into an elite QB - if he can.  Alex's main liabilities are holding the ball too long - a result of wanting making a play and remove the stigmas in his career.  Otherwise, Alex is scrupulous with the ball.  He is among the best in limiting interceptions.  Providing him better protection in the pocket will improve his play and winning percentage.  Adding a quality center, one who can make blocking assignments, is key.  Peter Konz is the highest ranked center, but there may be another, better option(s).

Keleche Osemele - Iowa State - is a guard who graduated early.  Linemen MUST be smart.  Keleche is massive.  6'-6", 335.  Huge wingspan and strength.  H reminds me of Dwight Stevenson - who coach Shula claimed could block the defensive line alone; was a similar prospect.  Keleche could handle Center duties +1.

Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler, graded well above the curve and could provide a solution.  He has a strong mind and is and is reported as being a perfectionist.

Guard David De Castro MAY be available an Harbaugh would likely take a former player he knows.  Harbaugh may move to add De Castro - if he is worth the move.

Wide Receivers:

A large, fast, and agile target is badly needed to compliment Davis.  Too many field goals are the result when receivers cannot get open in the end zone, or they are not tall enough to out leap defenders.

I'm a Brian Quick fan.  He is my favorite WR in this draft.  Watch his videos to learn why.  Tell me he does not remind you of Jerry Rice after making a catch.  He is not perfect, but does possesses the rudiments to excel.  Quick will likely be available in Round 2 - based upon projections.

Georgia Tech - Stephen Hill is another prospect that might go early in the first round; but team needs often move a player around.  Hill has many competitors with more receiving stats and that could reduce his perceived value.  If he is available at 30 - the Niners should take him.  Hill is unproven due to his school's run first type of offense - that limited his receptions.

Greg Childs is like Quick - same size(s) and great leaping ability - 41"  He was injured the past year and a half - patella.  He appeared healthy at his pro day.

Corners:

Trumaine Johnson, Montana, 6'-2":  Is my pick for the first defense.  His size and skilz (that include being tazed by police) will work to improve depth in the back field.  He can and has played safety and QB.  Potential convicts are better defensive players.  I know Pat Willis will assure he behaves.  The question is if he be available in the 3rd round.

Kelcie McRay S, Arkansas 6'-2". 205:  Again, DB size and speed are needed against the WR they face.  Those under 6-0 will not be able to defend in the red zone or in jump ball situations.  Kelcie has the size and speed - sub 4.5 40 time and 39" vertical.  He faced several future NFL wideouts in the SEC.