Forty-Effing-Niners

The Forty-Effing-Niners blog is an all year long site for 49er Football Coverage and Commentary from the man who SHOULD be writing for a major publication, network, or other... Your reporter and erstwhile 49er cover man - rb

Monday, April 30, 2012

2012 49er Draft Analysis



As I watched the 49ers select players in the 2012 draft - I was reminded of the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.  Newman and Redford were running from a posse - who could track them across stone, water, it appeared nothing could throw the posse off their trail.  "Who are these guys?"  one asked in desperation.  The same can be said for my reaction.  I'll admit listing Jenkins as a potential 4th WR option, but in truth had three others ahead of him, and that was before the Moss signing.  Brian Quick went to division rival STL - at the top of round 2.  Apparently Jeff Fischer or one of his staff saw what I saw.  Time will tell.  What I am confident about is Harbaugh & crew's ability to find talent.  I thought the same thing last year - Aldon WHO?

Aldon Smith's stats: 14 sacks, 2 forced fumbles - only playing 3rd down... and a rookie Pro Bowl mention is note worthy for any player.  I trust the brain trust in SF.  They want players who fit their system and to whom character matters.  C&T - Character and Team does to the Harbaughs.  Moss, Jacobs, Cox, Manningham, and Johnson need to remain squeaky clean, and place their interests behind the team.  Euphemistically speaking, recalling another classic film - The Untouchables - a large bat awaits players who refuse to control themselves.

Cons are not welcome.  Cons think of themselves first and always.  You cannot be competitive with Cons on your team.

The 49ers took players they evaulated as needed using their own criterion.  Time will tell how well they chose.

The draft is a modern version of slave trading.  Well, it is....  human beings are presented and selected based upon measurables and past actions.  There is no way any coach or draft team can predict how well a player will respond after they are drafted.  The large number of draft BUSTs is indicative of how dicey the process of human evaluation is.  Consider the large number of first round picks who never developed.  These are players who underwent UBER scrutiny.  In the days before the salary cap, the first 10 picks were bore hogged.  Nuttin was missed.  The most important element of a player's abilities  - Want To - is nearly impossible to gauge.  Players will lie when a multi-million dollar payday awaits them.  Some are sick of the game and once paid stop trying.  Some other players are um-day... stupid.

The Wonderlich test is an very important predictor of a players ability to succeed in the complexities of the NFL.  Any player who scores low must be removed from a draft list - IMO.  The combination of tired of playing and stupid is fatal.  Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Adam Pac-Man Jones, and this year - Morris Claiborne - are all first round picks who scored very low, some under 10, out of a possible 50 on the Wunderlich.  Morris scored a four !

I predict right here - Claiborne will never play at a level worth Dallas' trading up to get him.  He will struggle - then fail.  Or, his stupidity will lead to bad decision taking.  3-4 years tops before he is gone - or forgotten - irrelevant.  Admittedly, defense is more reaction and less thinking - but it is the other behaviors that accompany stupidity that dooms a player with limited intellectual abilities.  The slums are filled with people with low IQs.  It is not missing opportunities that places them in slums.  It is their stupidity and chosen behaviors that relegate them to the lowest rungs of success.

We will see what becomes of the draft selections and ubiquitous predictions of those players.  The entire draft hype is kinda silly - but fun.  There is another solution to FWS - football withdrawl syndrome.  Imagine....

The season is extended to 18 games.  Too many you say - wait.  Hear me out.

Instead of NFC and AFC playing each week - only one conference plays per week.  They alternate throughout the season.  This provides two weeks rest between games.  It prompts fans to pick another team to root for - a team not in their favorite team's conference.  This sells more merchandise and expands interest.  Best of all - the season expands to 40 weeks.  The season runs September through May !!!  Six weeks R&R, then training camp begins.  Players get more rest and play better.  Injuries are mitigated with more rest.  Everyone benefits.  The level of play gets better with healthy and rested players.  Win - Win - Win.

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